Dr S Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad had tongues rolling, especially in Pakistan, that there was a possible thaw in relationships on the cards
The handshakes between Jaishankar and Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif as also a brief exchange of courtesies was projected as a positive point in enhancing ties between the two states.

Many hoped that this visit could be the harbinger for future ties. Dr Jaishankar, as the EAM, visited Pakistan 9 years after Sushma Swaraj, the then EAM, made a visit to the country for a conference on Afghanistan.

Such was the impact of Dr Jaishankar attending the meet that former Pakistan PM, Nawaz Sharif, mentioned in an interaction with the media, “I have always been a supporter of good relations with India. Hope that there is an opportunity to revive our relationship.”

In a subsequent interaction he said, “Ask the Indian cricket team, and they would say they want to come to Pakistan and play,” adding, “The past has been bitter, let's see what happens in the future.” These words were the result of positive behaviour displayed by Dr Jaishankar.

Display of caution by India

Both, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif and India’s EAM Dr Jaishankar, did not rake up bilateral issues during their addresses in the summit. India neither asked nor did Pakistan offer any bilateral meeting during the visit.

In fact, Dr Jaishankar had mentioned well before his visit, “I am going there to be a good member of the SCO. Since I’m a courteous and civil person, I will behave myself accordingly.”

This comment was a hint at the disastrous visit of Bilawal to Goa for the SCO foreign ministers’ meet in May last year. India’s intent appeared to be to test waters and ultimately the results were positive.

Pakistan media was abuzz with the luncheon discussion between India’s EAM Dr Jaishankar, Pakistan Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi who also heads Pakistan’s Cricket Board. There was mention that the trio discussed resumption of cricketing ties, especially as Pakistan is scheduled to conduct the Champions Trophy early next year.

Pakistan is aware that in case India refuses to play in the country citing security concerns, the tournament would either be shifted to a neutral venue or like the Asia Cup be held in a hybrid mode.

 This, apart from being a loss of face, would also impact revenues.

Thus, the desperation in Islamabad is that India accepts invitation for its cricket team’s visit to Pakistan. The Indian government continues to play its cards close to its chest. The Indian spokesperson in New Delhi denied that any discussion on resumption of cricketing ties had taken place. What was discussed between the two foreign ministers remains under wraps.

Effective diplomacy

Dr Jaishankar’s approach was in sharp contrast to that of Bilawal Bhutto to India last year. In that visit too there was no bilateral. Bilawal also met his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the summit and released a statement which included Kashmir. In a subsequent press interaction, Bilawal raised article 370 to which Dr Jaishankar later countered, “Wake up and smell the coffee. (Article) 370 is history.”

Dr Jaishankar, on his current visit, neither had a press interaction nor did he comment negatively on Pakistan. It is believed that there was an agreement between the two nations that both Shehbaz and Jaishankar would not discuss subjects which could mar the summit, though the SCO charter prohibits raising of bilateral subjects.

Dr Jaishankar’s reference to terrorism was oblique and broad based. On his return, he thanked both, PM Shehbaz Sharief and his counterpart, Ishaq Dar, for courtesies extended. He tweeted, ‘Thank PM @CMShehbaz, DPM & FM @MIshaqDar50 and the Government of Pakistan for the hospitality and courtesies.’ This was something Bilawal Bhutto never even considered.

 While Jaishankar gained credibility and opened doors for the future, Bilawal shut them even before they opened. Maturity amongst nations and leaders count. 

Conclusion

The positivity which Jaishankar created will definitely go a long way.

 However, this is just a start. Pakistan’s sincerity in moving ties forward by stopping flow of terrorists and restoring diplomatic status to normal will display its future intent.

There are small signs which are visible of a change in outlook though at times contradictory.

 The handshake and smiles when Shehbaz and Jaishankar met dominated social media and raised hopes for future normalization.

Shehbaz Sharif and his foreign minister made no comment on J&K elections, though Shehbaz raised Kashmir in his UNGA address, only to be countered by Jaishankar.

 Pakistan’s defence minister attempted to influence voters by commenting that Pakistan and the NC are on the same page, to be hit back by Omar Abdullah, who asked Pakistan to mind its own business.

Pakistan media believes that India did not intend to mar the standing of the SCO as it also involved China and Russia. The reality is that India could have bypassed the event on multiple grounds but the fact is that PM Modi sending his foreign minister was to convey a positive signal to Pakistan that in case it mends its ways, India is always there.

The positivity displayed by Dr Jaishankar was an indicator of a mature nation with mature leaders, a lesson for Pakistan for the future.

 Normalizing ties with the world’s fifth largest economy would benefit Pakistan, however, in case it does not do so, it will be the loser.

India has outgrown Pakistan but Islamabad is fixated by New Delhi. If Pakistan has to save face during the Champion’s trophy, it needs to woo India. The ball is in Pakistan’s court. It is for them to make the next move.

*** The writer is a security and strategic affairs commentator; views expressed here are his own