After four-and-half years of armed stalemate at the borders, India and China last week agreed to reduce border tensions, ushering in regional stability and strengthening cooperation among the countries of the Global South
Even though no joint statement or a formal announcement about the specifics were made by the Indian and Chinese leaders on the vexed border situation, the October 21 announcement by the Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri that patrolling will resume by the Indian side has sent positive signals.

This is a reflection of years of troop mobilisation, standing one’s ground, strength in mountain warfare techniques, persistent diplomacy and countless back-channel talks between officials of the two sides.

Reproachment at the borders
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping met on October 23 for the first time in five years at Kazan in Russia, the venue for the 16th BRICS meeting and ratified this arrangement.

They also suggested the resumption of the Special Representative (SR) mechanism that was set up in 2003 and 22 rounds of such discussions were held by 2019. The June 2020 clashes at Galwan stalled the progress of the SR talks tasked with the identification of a mutually acceptable Line of Actual Control between the two countries.

India and China have held 21 rounds of Corps Commanders meetings and 31 rounds of Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) so far.

External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval also held talks with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi at Astana (July 4) and Vientiane (July 25) and at St Petersburg (September 12) respectively. A flurry of these meetings was conducted following PM Modi’s suggestion in April this year, in a Newsweek interview, that India and China should improve relations.

After four-and-half years of armed stalemate, the resumption of patrolling by the Indian side in Depsang and Demchok regions is a positive development in reducing border tensions, ushering in regional stability and strengthening cooperation among the Global South countries.

Of the 65 patrol points from Karakoram ranges to Chumar area in Himachal/Uttaranchal borders with Tibet, a few areas witnessed friction between the two countries patrols. In the Corps Commanders meetings some of these were resolved.

It is interesting to point out that this is also perhaps the first time China had conceded to a demand for patrolling and disengagement, while in South China Sea, Senkaku islands dispute or Taiwan Straits mobilisation it had not given leeway to the opponents. It is clear that the costs on China are multiplying on various fronts.

Reasons behind China’s climbdown
The relative economic decline from 10 percent in 2010 to about 5 percent recently, the real estate bust, mounting local debt, increasing unemployment, emerging conflict on multiple fronts, civil-military tensions, decoupling, and de-risking travails with western countries, coupled with the stout resistance by the Indian armed forces and stiff response by Dr S Jaishankar in different international fora, have all contributed to a change in China’s position with India.

New Delhi’s concerns are how long-lasting is China’s commitment for bilateral agreements and to peace and stability on the borders and in bilateral relations.

For sure, China’s concessions are tactical in nature while strategically dominating the Aksai Chin area. To avoid any pitfalls, India needs to be on guard and insist on the arrangements to be successfully implemented.

Need to focus on fundamental aspect of relations
As India and China celebrate 75th anniversary of the diplomatic relations establishment next year, India needs to tone down any euphoria but focus on the fundamental aspect of the bilateral relations, that is the territorial dispute resolution before any other ties are worked out.

Today’s China is showcasing its vigorousness all around following a cue from President Xi’s insistence that “core interests are more important than developmental interests.”

Trust deficit issues are not going to go away in relations with China given the unprovoked mobilisation of its two brigades in late 2019 in eastern Ladakh, despite the 2nd “informal summit” that PM Modi held with President Xi at Mamallapuram in Tamil Nadu, India’s southern state.

No wonder, PM Modi reminded President Xi at the Kazan meeting on mutual trust necessary for stable bilateral relations. While China violated the five confidence building mechanisms with India and precipitated the Galwan incident, India needs to propose fresh and binding measures for border stability, once the current round of patrolling and disengagement processes are completed.

Conclusion
Even though both decided to disengage the troops, allow patrolling to recommence and dismantle temporary tents constructed in the past four years, it is not clear whether the buffer zones and permanent defence structures that were raised will be cleared.

The success of this round of efforts – and in the medium term to the normalisation of bilateral relations - will also depend on the People’s Liberation Army’s responses as it has shown considerable resistance to confidence building measures.

All in all, the current round of resumption of patrolling and disengagement of troops is a step in the positive direction, the progress of which needs to be monitored closely.

While it is natural to raise some fundamental questions such as why such a situation had arisen in the bilateral relations in June 2020, it is also important to note that due to painstaking diplomatic efforts both sides were able to make efforts for peace and stability on the borders.

**** The writer is Professor in Chinese Studies at JNU; views expressed here are his own